The 2026 European Championships in Paris are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for women's swimming, particularly in the 4×100 medley relay. As an analyst and commentator, I find myself drawn to the narrative surrounding the Dutch team, who are poised to end a staggering 60-year drought in this event. What makes this particularly fascinating is the unpredictability of the relay—a discipline where team dynamics, strategy, and individual performances converge in a high-stakes, split-second race.
The Dutch Dilemma: A Tale of Talent and Tactics
The Netherlands’ situation is intriguing. Marrit Steenbergen, Europe’s standout swimmer, is the linchpin of their team. But here’s where it gets interesting: should she anchor the freestyle leg, where she’s delivered blistering 51-point splits, or should she lead off on backstroke, where she recently clocked a personal best of 58.33? Personally, I think this decision will define their race. If you take a step back and think about it, the choice isn’t just about speed—it’s about momentum. A strong backstroke start could set the tone for the entire relay, especially with Milou van Wijk as a capable anchor. Yet, the temptation to keep Steenbergen in her traditional role is undeniable. What this really suggests is that the Dutch have options, a luxury many teams lack.
The Contenders: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Hidden Potential
The field is stacked, but each team has its quirks. Russia, competing as Neutral Athletes B, boasts a balanced lineup with no glaring weaknesses. Alina Gaufutdinova’s backstroke and Daria Klepikova’s butterfly are standout legs, but Evgenia Chikunova’s breaststroke could be their Achilles’ heel. In my opinion, their consistency makes them favorites for silver, but they’ll need Chikunova to step up.
Great Britain, on the other hand, is a study in contrasts. Angharad Evans’ breaststroke is world-class, but Lauren Cox’s backstroke is a wildcard. If Cox can deliver a sub-60-second split, they’re in the hunt. What many people don’t realize is that their back half—Keanna MacInnes on fly and Theodora Taylor on free—could be their secret weapon. However, MacInnes’ tendency to split slower than her flat start times could cost them.
Italy and France are intriguing dark horses. Italy’s breaststroke duo of Benedetta Pilato and Anita Bottazzo is formidable, but their backstroke is a glaring weakness. France, meanwhile, has Europe’s fastest backstroker in Mary-Ambre Moluh, but Chloe Braun’s breaststroke is a liability. One thing that immediately stands out is how these teams’ strengths and weaknesses cancel each other out, leaving them in a mid-pack battle.
The Broader Narrative: Unpredictability and Legacy
What makes this event so compelling is its unpredictability. The last four editions have crowned four different winners, with nine teams medaling in the last three. This raises a deeper question: is this a sign of parity, or is it a reflection of the event’s complexity? I believe it’s both. The medley relay demands precision, and small mistakes—a missed turn, a sluggish handover—can be decisive.
For the Dutch, ending 60 years of hurt would be more than a victory; it would be a statement. Steenbergen’s dominance, coupled with a strong supporting cast, makes them the team to beat. But swimming is a sport where fractions of a second matter, and the pressure of history can weigh heavily. A detail that I find especially interesting is how the Dutch’s decision to DNS this relay at last year’s World Championships adds another layer to their story. Are they playing it safe, or are they saving their best for Paris?
Looking Ahead: The X-Factors and Dark Horses
Germany and Ireland are teams I’m keeping an eye on. Germany’s ‘engine room’ of Anna Elendt and Angelina Kohler is impressive, but their anchor leg is a question mark. Ireland, meanwhile, is a wildcard. With Mona McSharry on breaststroke and Ellen Walshe on fly, they could surprise everyone and crack the top eight. What this really suggests is that the relay is wide open, with multiple teams capable of stepping up.
Final Thoughts: More Than Just a Race
As we approach the Championships, I’m struck by the human stories behind the times. For the Dutch, it’s about legacy. For the Russians, it’s about consistency. For Great Britain, it’s about overcoming weaknesses. This event isn’t just about who’s fastest—it’s about who can execute under pressure, who can rise to the occasion, and who can write their names into history.
Personally, I think the Dutch will do it. But in the world of swimming, nothing is certain. And that’s what makes it so thrilling.
